Oakland Athletics at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Tony KempBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis MedinaPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Amed RosarioBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Giménez singled to right, Ramírez scored, Freeman to second, J. Naylor to third.2–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 7Ramírez doubled to left, Rosario scored.2–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 7Rosario singled to left, Straw scored.2–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 7Kemp homered to right (364 feet).2–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Noda grounded out to first, Kemp scored, Ruiz to second.1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 63%
- Fair odds
- CLE -131
- OAK +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.0 – 4.6 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1434 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +8 | OAK: Ken Waldichuk: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CLE: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +91 Elo | CLE 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.3 | Runs allowed | 4.28th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.7 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 30th of 3010–26 | Road vs home | 16–1723rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 1–2 CLE in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.