Cleveland Guardians at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- David FryBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Drew CarltonPitching2.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Giménez singled to right, Fry scored, Giménez to second.8–6
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play8–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 17–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–6
- 5Grisham doubled to right, Kim scored, Cruz to third.7–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 17–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–5
- 4Ramírez reached on infield single to shortstop, Brennan scored, Rosario to second.7–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 26–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 3Dixon grounded out to first, Bogaerts scored and Kim scored.6–5
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 16–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–3
- 2Ramírez doubled to left, Straw scored.6–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 35–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 25–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 1Machado homered to left center (408 feet), Tatis Jr. scored and Soto scored.5–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 1Fry homered to left (347 feet), Ramírez scored and Naylor scored.5–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 1Naylor singled to center, Giménez scored and Rosario scored, Ramírez to second.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 56%
- Fair odds
- SD -115
- CLE +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.6 – 3.9 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −1 | CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SD: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +42 Elo | SD 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 8th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 18th of 3015–19 | Road vs home | 15–1825th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 0–2 SD in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.