Cleveland Guardians at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Amed RosarioBatting1-4
- Aaron CivalePitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Cruz homered to left center (433 feet).0–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 30–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 20–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 6Soto homered to left (363 feet).0–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 6Tatis Jr. scored on Hentges wild pitch.0–3
- 6Tatis Jr. scored on Hentges wild pitch.0–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Machado homered to left center (385 feet).0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Tatis Jr. homered to left center (364 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 56%
- Fair odds
- SD -114
- CLE +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.7 – 4.0 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +16 | CLE: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · SD: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.79 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +39 Elo | SD 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 7th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.311th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 18th of 3015–18 | Road vs home | 14–1826th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 0–1 SD in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.