San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yu DarvishPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Mike MoustakasBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Moustakas homered to right center (441 feet), Díaz scored.9–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking9–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 19–4
- 7Dixon homered to center (430 feet).9–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 28–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–4
- 6Montero singled to right, Moustakas scored and Grichuk scored, Montero out stretching at second.8–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 18–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–2
- 6Grichuk doubled to left, McMahon scored, Moustakas to third.8–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–2
- 6Tatis Jr. homered to left center (425 feet).8–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 5Kim singled to center, Bogaerts scored, Cronenworth to second.7–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 26–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 16–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 3Tovar singled to center, Jones scored.6–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 2Sánchez homered to left (404 feet), Tatis Jr. scored.6–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 2Grisham homered to left (391 feet).4–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 33–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Cronenworth singled to right, Bogaerts scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 49%
- Fair odds
- COL -105
- SD +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.9 – 5.1 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −2 | SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +10 Elo | SD 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.529th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.027th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 14th of 3014–15 | Road vs home | 15–1725th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 2–2 COL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.