Cleveland Guardians at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Josh BellBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Padres- Gary SanchezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Joe MusgrovePitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Freeman hit sacrifice fly to left, Ramírez scored, Bell to second.3–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–6
- 5Bogaerts doubled to center, Machado scored.2–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 5Kwan grounded out to second, Brennan scored.2–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 2Tatis Jr. homered to center (405 feet).1–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 2Bell homered to right (346 feet).1–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 1Sánchez homered to left center (396 feet), Soto scored and Cronenworth scored.0–4
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Bogaerts hit sacrifice fly to left, Tatis Jr. scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 55%
- Fair odds
- SD -112
- CLE +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.7 – 3.9 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −1 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SD: Joe Musgrove: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +32 Elo | SD 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 18th of 3015–17 | Road vs home | 13–1826th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.