San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jake CronenworthBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 12 K
Rockies- Coco MontesBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dinelson LametPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jones homered to right center (472 feet).4–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 9McMahon homered to right (442 feet).4–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 9Kim scored on Lawrence wild pitch, Carpenter to second on wild pitch by Lawrence.4–3
- 9Kim scored on Lawrence wild pitch, Carpenter to second on wild pitch by Lawrence.4–3
- 8Montes homered to left (377 feet), Jones scored.3–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 4Cronenworth homered to right (404 feet), Bogaerts scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 3Soto hit sacrifice fly to left, Tatis Jr. scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Tovar homered to left center (424 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockies 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 46%
- Fair odds
- COL -102
- SD +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 5.0 – 5.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −14 | SD: Blake Snell: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · COL: Dinelson Lamet: team allows 0.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +31 Elo | SD 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.529th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.127th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 10th of 3016–15 | Road vs home | 15–1925th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 4–2 COL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.