San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting2-5, 2 RBI
- Ryan WeathersPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Rockies- Nolan JonesBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Tatis Jr. singled to right, Bogaerts scored and Kim scored, Nola to third.3–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 5Trejo grounded into fielder's choice to second, Tovar scored.1–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Jones homered to left (383 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Sánchez singled to left, Machado scored, Sánchez to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 49%
- Fair odds
- COL -105
- SD +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 5.1 – 5.2 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +5 | SD: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +7 Elo | SD 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.529th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.127th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 11th of 3015–15 | Road vs home | 15–1825th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 3–2 COL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.