Philadelphia Phillies at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Athletics- Esteury RuizBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- JP SearsPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bohm singled to right, Harper scored.6–1
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 9Castellanos scored on pickoff error by pitcher C. Smith, Harper picked off third.5–1
- 9Castellanos scored on pickoff error by pitcher C. Smith, Harper picked off third.5–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 14–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 4Bohm homered to left (383 feet), Harper scored.4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 3Ruiz singled to center, Langeliers scored, Kemp thrown out at third.2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Realmuto homered to left center (392 feet).2–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Schwarber homered to right center (394 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 56%
- Fair odds
- PHI -106
- OAK +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.7 – 4.5 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1438 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +12 | PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +41 Elo | PHI 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 6.430th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −2.830th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3016–23 | Road vs home | 9–2629th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.