Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- J.T. RealmutoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Diamondbacks- Christian WalkerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Castellanos hit sacrifice fly to center, Marsh scored, Turner to third.4–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Walker homered to left (427 feet), McCarthy scored and Perdomo scored.3–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 23–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 6Realmuto homered to left (428 feet).3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Realmuto grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Turner scored, Harper out at second.2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Sosa grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Stott scored, Clemens out at second.1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 58%
- Fair odds
- ARI -121
- PHI +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.7 – 5.1 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +11 | PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +55 Elo | ARI 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.25th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 25th of 3014–23 | Road vs home | 21–1511th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 2–3 ARI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.