Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryson StottBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zach DaviesPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Harper singled to center, Guthrie scored and Sosa scored.15–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play15–3
- 9Sosa doubled to left, Marsh scored, Guthrie to third.13–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play13–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 113–3
- 9Marsh singled to center, Bohm scored.12–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play12–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 112–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul12–3
- 8Carroll homered to right (372 feet).11–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking11–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 111–2
- 8Realmuto doubled to right, Castellanos scored.11–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking10–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 110–2
- 8Castellanos doubled to right, Turner scored and Schwarber scored.10–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–2
- 7C. Kelly grounded out to shortstop, McCarthy scored.8–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–1
- 7Stott singled to center, Realmuto scored.8–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–1
- 6Walker doubled to center, Carroll scored.7–1
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play7–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 37–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 27–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 17–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–0
- 5Stott homered to right center (401 feet).7–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 3Clemens flied out to left, Realmuto scored.6–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 57%
- Fair odds
- ARI -121
- PHI +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.5 – 5.0 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +8 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ARI: Zach Davies: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +51 Elo | ARI 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.24th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.69th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 28th of 3013–23 | Road vs home | 21–147th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–3 ARI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.