Arizona Diamondbacks at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting3-4
- Matthew BoydPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Gurriel Jr. homered to left center (418 feet), Moreno scored and Marte scored.5–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Ahmed homered to left center (404 feet), Smith scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 53%
- Fair odds
- ARI -100
- DET +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.5 – 4.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −6 | ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · DET: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +22 Elo | ARI 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.822nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −1.228th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3018–11 | Road vs home | 14–1421st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 1–0 DET in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.