Arizona Diamondbacks at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting3-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Tigers- Jake RogersBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching6.2 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Báez homered to left (382 feet).11–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–5
- 9Rogers homered to right center (405 feet).11–5
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play11–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 311–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul11–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking11–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 211–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 111–4
- 9Walker hit sacrifice fly to right, Marte scored, Carroll to third.11–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul10–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–4
- 8Maton singled to center, Torkelson scored.10–4
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play10–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul10–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 210–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul10–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 110–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul10–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging10–3
- 8Perdomo reached on infield single to first, Rivera scored.10–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 19–3
- 7Rogers homered to left (390 feet).9–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–3
- 7Carroll homered to left (355 feet), Herrera scored, Smith scored and Marte scored.9–2
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play9–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 25–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 7Marte walked, McCarthy scored, Smith to second, Herrera to third.5–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 45–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 34–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 47%
- Fair odds
- DET -100
- ARI +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.3 – 4.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | +18 | ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.84 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · DET: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.92 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +23 Elo | ARI 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.530th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −1.228th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 4th of 3017–11 | Road vs home | 14–1318th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.