Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- J.T. RealmutoBatting4-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Matt StrahmPitching2.2 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Diamondbacks- Evan LongoriaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Tommy HenryPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Stott singled to right, Realmuto scored.8–9
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball In Play8–9
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball 37–9
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul7–9
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–9
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–9
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 27–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–9
- 7Bohm singled to right, Harper scored, Realmuto to third.7–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–9
- 7Harper doubled to center, Schwarber scored.6–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–9
- 6Longoria homered to center (434 feet), Marte scored and Carroll scored.5–9
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–9
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 25–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 15–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–6
- 6Rivera hit sacrifice fly to center, McCarthy scored.5–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 25–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 4Carroll tripled to right, Rivera scored.5–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 4Rivera singled to center, Marte scored.5–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 3Smith singled to right, Rivera scored and Carroll scored.5–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 3Harrison singled to center, Bohm scored, Harrison thrown out at second.5–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 57%
- Fair odds
- ARI -120
- PHI +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.2 – 4.6 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −5 | PHI: Matt Strahm: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · ARI: Tommy Henry: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +46 Elo | ARI 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.24th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 25th of 3013–22 | Road vs home | 20–148th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–2 ARI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.