Tampa Bay Rays at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Manuel MargotBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Yonny ChirinosPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Hogan HarrisPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Pérez grounded out to third, Laureano scored.1–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 7Rooker doubled to left, Peterson scored.1–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Margot singled to left, Siri scored.1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 67%
- Fair odds
- TB -124
- OAK +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 5.1 – 4.6 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1438 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −26 | TB: Jalen Beeks: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · OAK: Shintaro Fujinami: team allows 1.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +121 Elo | TB 66.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.7 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 6.530th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.0 | Margin | −2.830th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 8th of 3017–14 | Road vs home | 8–2430th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 3–1 OAK in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.