Tampa Bay Rays at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jose SiriBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting1-3, 3 RBI
- James KaprielianPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Siri homered to center (427 feet), Raley scored and J. Lowe scored.3–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 30–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 5Noda singled to center, Langeliers scored.0–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 5Langeliers doubled to center, Bride scored, Smith scored and Peterson scored.0–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 67%
- Fair odds
- TB -124
- OAK +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 5.0 – 4.5 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1437 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −7 | TB: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · OAK: James Kaprielian: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +120 Elo | TB 66.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.8 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 6.630th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.1 | Margin | −2.930th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 6th of 3017–13 | Road vs home | 7–2430th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 3–0 OAK in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.