Tampa Bay Rays at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Luke RaleyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 11 K
Athletics- Seth BrownBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Paul BlackburnPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Raley homered to center (410 feet).4–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 5Brown singled to left, Kemp scored and Ruiz scored, Noda to second.3–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 5Noda singled to center, Smith scored, Ruiz to second, Kemp to third.3–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 13–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 4Margot homered to left center (397 feet).3–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Walls doubled to center, Raley scored, Paredes to third.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Paredes singled to right, Ramírez scored, Raley to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 59%
- Fair odds
- TB -117
- OAK +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.8 – 4.5 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1439 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | +18 | TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.87 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · OAK: Paul Blackburn: team allows 0.90 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +62 Elo | TB 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 6.430th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.0 | Margin | −2.830th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 8th of 3018–15 | Road vs home | 9–2529th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 4–2 OAK in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.