Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryson StottBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching6.2 IP, 4 ER, 9 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 4Harper singled to left, Schwarber scored, Turner to second.5–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 4Schwarber doubled to right, Stubbs scored.4–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 3Marte homered to center (423 feet), Moreno scored and Perdomo scored.3–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 33–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 3Moreno singled to center, McCarthy scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 3Bohm doubled to center, Stott scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Turner reached on infield single to first, Bohm scored, Schwarber to second, Marsh to third.2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Stott homered to right (418 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 56%
- Fair odds
- ARI -118
- PHI +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.7 – 5.0 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −7 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +40 Elo | ARI 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.25th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.819th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 24th of 3015–23 | Road vs home | 21–1612th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 3–3 ARI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.