Cleveland Guardians at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Touki ToussaintPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Marte singled to center, Rojas scored, Smith to third.1–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 6Carroll doubled to left, Smith scored, Marte to third.1–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 6Smith singled to left, Perdomo scored.1–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 4Ramírez homered to right (426 feet).1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 2Perdomo hit sacrifice fly to right, McCarthy scored, Moreno to third.0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Walker doubled to center, Marte scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 58%
- Fair odds
- ARI -121
- CLE +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.4 – 4.8 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −3 | CLE: Touki Toussaint (no track record yet) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +53 Elo | ARI 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 5.15th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.820th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 18th of 3016–19 | Road vs home | 21–1713th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.