Cleveland Guardians at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting4-5, 3 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Diamondbacks- Christian WalkerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zach DaviesPitching3.2 IP, 8 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 5Walker doubled to left, Carroll scored and Perdomo scored.12–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play12–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 312–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 212–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 112–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking12–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking12–1
- 5J. Naylor singled to center, Kwan scored, Rosario to second.12–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play12–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–1
- 4Brennan singled to center, Freeman scored.11–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–1
- 4Freeman doubled to right, Giménez scored.10–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play10–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging9–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 19–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–1
- 4Giménez tripled to right, Rosario scored and J. Naylor scored.9–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging7–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 4J. Naylor singled to center, Kwan scored, Rosario to second.7–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 4Kwan grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Bo Naylor scored, Straw out at second.6–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 2Walker homered to center (416 feet).5–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 2Rosario hit sacrifice fly to left, Kwan scored.5–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 56%
- Fair odds
- ARI -122
- CLE +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.4 – 4.8 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −13 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · ARI: Zach Davies: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +44 Elo | ARI 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 5.25th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3016–21 | Road vs home | 23–1710th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 0–2 ARI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.