Cleveland Guardians at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Andres GimenezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shane BieberPitching7.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Diamondbacks- Christian WalkerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tommy HenryPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ramírez hit sacrifice fly to center, Arias scored.3–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8Gurriel Jr. homered to left (361 feet).2–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 32–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 8Carroll homered to right center (426 feet), Marte scored.2–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 8McCarthy homered to right center (397 feet).2–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4Walker homered to right center (380 feet), Marte scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 3Giménez homered to right (401 feet).2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Giménez walked, Kwan scored, Bell to second, Rosario to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 41–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 55%
- Fair odds
- ARI -120
- CLE +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.3 – 4.7 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −12 | CLE: Shane Bieber: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ARI: Tommy Henry: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +34 Elo | ARI 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 5.15th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 18th of 3016–20 | Road vs home | 22–1711th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 0–1 ARI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.