Philadelphia Phillies at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Athletics- Aledmys DiazBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hogan HarrisPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Pérez singled to left, Ruiz scored.3–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 33–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 8Turner singled to left, Pache scored.3–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 7Díaz homered to left (356 feet).2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Schwarber singled to right, Pache scored.2–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Schwarber homered to center (409 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 57%
- Fair odds
- PHI -109
- OAK +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.6 – 4.4 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1434 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +6 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · OAK: Hogan Harris: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +52 Elo | PHI 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 6.330th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −2.830th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 20th of 3018–23 | Road vs home | 9–2830th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 2–0 OAK in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.