Oakland Athletics at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Ryan NodaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Paul BlackburnPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting4-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Kwan doubled to right, Bo Naylor scored on throwing error by right fielder Laureano and Straw scored on error, Kwan to third.6–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 7J. Naylor homered to right center (399 feet).6–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 36–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking6–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul6–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 26–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 7Brown singled to center, Díaz scored, Ruiz to third.6–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 35–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 25–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 7Ruiz singled to left, Kemp scored, Díaz to second.5–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 5J. Naylor reached on infield single to first, Ramírez scored.4–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 34–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 24–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 3Giménez hit sacrifice fly to center, Rosario scored, Ramírez to third.4–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 3Rosario singled to right, Bo Naylor and Kwan scored on fielding error by right fielder Laureano.4–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 24–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 14–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 3Noda homered to right (358 feet), Wade scored and Ruiz scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 57%
- Fair odds
- CLE -127
- OAK +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.9 – 4.5 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1433 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −11 | OAK: Paul Blackburn: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CLE: Gavin Williams (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +51 Elo | CLE 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.2 | Runs allowed | 4.28th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.7 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 30th of 3010–27 | Road vs home | 17–1721st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 1–3 CLE in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.