Toronto Blue Jays at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting2-4
- Jose BerriosPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Luis ArraezBatting5-5, 2 RBI
- Bryan HoeingPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Amaya singled to left, Hampson scored, Davis to second, Stallings to third.0–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–11
- 7De La Cruz singled to left, Stallings scored, De La Cruz to second, Arraez to third.0–10
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–10
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 20–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–9
- 7Arraez singled to left, Berti scored and Wendle scored, Stallings to second.0–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 7Berti singled to center, Cooper scored, Wendle to third.0–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–7
- 7Wendle singled to center, Sánchez scored, Cooper to second.0–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 4Sánchez grounded out to first, Davis scored, De La Cruz to second, Arraez to third.0–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 4Soler hit sacrifice fly to center, Stallings scored.0–4
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 30–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 20–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 10–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 3Cooper singled to left, Sánchez scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 3Soler homered to left center (411 feet), Arraez scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 49%
- Fair odds
- MIA -110
- TOR +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.2 – 4.4 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −6 | TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.83 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIA: Bryan Hoeing: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +10 Elo | TOR 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.323rd of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 13th of 3020–21 | Road vs home | 21–135th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.