Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Rangers- Leody TaverasBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- John KingPitching3.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Seager singled to right, Semien scored.7–11
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–11
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 37–11
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 27–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–10
- 7Taveras homered to right center (398 feet), Duran scored.7–10
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play7–10
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul7–8
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 37–8
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 27–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 17–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking7–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–8
- 6Springer reached on infield single to shortstop, Kiermaier scored.7–8
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 16–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–8
- 5Semien hit sacrifice fly to center, Duran scored.6–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–8
- 5Taveras singled to center, Garver scored, Duran to third.6–7
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 36–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 26–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–6
- 5Heim homered to right (371 feet).6–6
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 26–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking6–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 16–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 4García singled to left, Seager scored, Lowe to second.6–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 4Seager doubled to right, Duran scored and Taveras scored.6–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 60%
- Fair odds
- TEX -120
- TOR +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.7 – 5.1 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +20 | TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TEX: Jon Gray: team allows 0.99 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +73 Elo | TEX 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 6.01st of 30 |
| 8th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +2.11st of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 12th of 3020–20 | Road vs home | 23–132nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–1 TEX in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.