Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Daulton VarshoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Trevor RichardsPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dane DunningPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Seager homered to center (418 feet).2–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Varsho homered to right center (405 feet).2–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 31–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 2Heim homered to right center (403 feet).1–3
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Jung homered to right center (387 feet), García scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Guerrero Jr. singled to left, Bichette scored, Guerrero Jr. to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 59%
- Fair odds
- TEX -118
- TOR +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.7 – 5.1 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −25 | −12 | TOR: Trevor Richards: team allows 1.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · TEX: Dane Dunning: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +60 Elo | TEX 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 6.11st of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +2.11st of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 11th of 3020–19 | Road vs home | 22–134th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–0 TEX in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.