Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- JJ BledayBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- James KaprielianPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Langeliers homered to left (391 feet).5–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 5Bleday hit sacrifice fly to right, Capel scored.4–4
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging3–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 33–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 3Guerrero Jr. homered to left center (434 feet), Kiermaier scored and Bichette scored.3–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 3Kiermaier doubled to center, Jansen scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1Langeliers singled to right, Díaz scored, Peterson to third.3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Bleday homered to right (372 feet), Kemp scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 62%
- Fair odds
- TOR -137
- OAK +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.1 – 4.8 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1430 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −15 | OAK: James Kaprielian: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +82 Elo | TOR 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 57.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.2 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.7 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 30th of 3010–29 | Road vs home | 19–137th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.