Toronto Blue Jays at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Matt ChapmanBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Marlins- Garrett CooperBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching7.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Chapman homered to left (415 feet).6–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 7Hampson singled to right, Davis scored, Stallings to second.5–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 4Cooper doubled to left, De La Cruz scored and Sánchez scored.5–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 2Merrifield singled to center, Springer scored, Merrifield to second.5–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 2Springer singled to left, Espinal scored and Kiermaier scored, Springer to second.4–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Kiermaier singled to center, Biggio scored, Espinal to third.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 2Biggio doubled to right, Chapman scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 51%
- Fair odds
- MIA -111
- TOR +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.0 – 4.3 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −7 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +4 Elo | MIA 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 15th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 13th of 3021–22 | Road vs home | 22–146th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–1 MIA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.