Toronto Blue Jays at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Marlins- Bryan De La CruzBatting2-4
- Eury PerezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Springer singled to left, Clement scored.2–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 31–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 8Clement singled to center, Espinal scored, Clement to second.1–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 55%
- Fair odds
- MIA -115
- TOR +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.2 – 4.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +15 | TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +35 Elo | MIA 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 14th of 3020–22 | Road vs home | 22–134th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 0–1 MIA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.