Oakland Athletics at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Aledmys DiazBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- JP SearsPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Guardians- Josh BellBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Kwan scored on Ríos wild pitch, Ramírez to second on wild pitch by Ríos, Rosario to third on wild pitch by Ríos.1–6
- 8Kwan scored on Ríos wild pitch, Ramírez to second on wild pitch by Ríos, Rosario to third on wild pitch by Ríos.1–6
- 8Ramírez walked, Gallagher scored, Rosario to second, Kwan to third.1–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 41–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 31–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 8Rosario walked, Straw scored, Kwan to second, Gallagher to third.1–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 41–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 31–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 8Gallagher walked, Arias scored on Ríos wild pitch, Straw to second.1–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 41–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 31–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 5Straw tripled to left, Giménez scored.1–2
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 5Bell homered to left (430 feet).1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Díaz hit sacrifice fly to center, Kemp scored.1–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 60%
- Fair odds
- CLE -130
- OAK +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.9 – 4.5 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1432 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −5 | OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +67 Elo | CLE 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.3 | Runs allowed | 4.28th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.7 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 30th of 3010–28 | Road vs home | 18–1721st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 1–4 CLE in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.