Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Seth BrownBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hogan HarrisPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 6Guerrero Jr. homered to center (437 feet), Belt scored.3–7
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 33–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 23–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 6Wade singled to center, Peterson scored, Langeliers to third.3–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 3Jansen homered to left center (378 feet), Varsho scored.2–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 3Noda doubled to center, Kemp scored, Noda thrown out at third.2–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 2Guerrero Jr. hit by pitch, Espinal scored, Belt to second, Springer to third.1–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Brown homered to center (414 feet).1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Chapman singled to right, Bichette scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Belt hit sacrifice fly to left, Springer scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 66%
- Fair odds
- TOR -139
- OAK +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.1 – 4.8 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1431 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +4 | OAK: Shintaro Fujinami: team allows 0.78 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +113 Elo | TOR 65.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.2 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.7 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 30th of 3011–29 | Road vs home | 19–148th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 1–0 TOR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.