Texas Rangers at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting3-5
- Jon GrayPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Billy McKinneyBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 4McKinney homered to right (423 feet).0–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 44%
- Fair odds
- NYY -101
- TEX +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.4 – 4.4 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −10 | TEX: Jon Gray: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NYY: Luis Severino: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +41 Elo | TEX 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.1 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.1 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 4th of 3023–15 | Road vs home | 23–1914th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 4–1 NYY in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.