New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Gleyber TorresBatting2-4
- Luis SeverinoPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Red Sox- Triston CasasBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 5Casas hit a ground rule double, Duran scored and Verdugo scored, Devers to third.1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 4McGuire reached first base on catcher's interference, Verdugo to home, Casas to second, Refsnyder to third.1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 2Hernández doubled to left, Devers scored.1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Rizzo grounded out to second, Bauers scored, Torres to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 53%
- Fair odds
- BOS -109
- NYY +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.0 – 5.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | 0 | NYY: Luis Severino: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +23 Elo | BOS 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.16th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 7th of 3018–15 | Road vs home | 20–1818th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 1–4 BOS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.