New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Gleyber TorresBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Alex VerdugoBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Yoshida scored on a balk.2–6
- 7Yoshida scored on a balk.2–6
- 6Turner singled to left, Verdugo scored.2–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 6Verdugo doubled to left, Wong scored.2–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 6Wong doubled to left, Hernández scored.2–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 5Duvall singled to left, Turner scored.2–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 5Devers grounded out to shortstop, Verdugo scored, Turner to third.2–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Torres homered to center (415 feet), Bauers scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 50%
- Fair odds
- BOS -106
- NYY +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.0 – 5.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −4 | NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BOS: Kaleb Ort (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +1 Elo | NYY 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 6th of 3018–14 | Road vs home | 19–1820th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 1–3 BOS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.