Colorado Rockies at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Red Sox- Alex VerdugoBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Garrett WhitlockPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Grichuk grounded into double play, third to second to first, McMahon scored, Díaz out at second.3–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–6
- 7Verdugo doubled to left, Turner scored.2–6
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 32–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 22–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 7Turner singled to left, Refsnyder scored.2–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 12–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 7Refsnyder tripled to center, Duran scored and Wong scored.2–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 7Reyes hit sacrifice fly to center, Hernández scored, Wong to second, Duran to third.2–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 6McMahon doubled to left, Jones scored.2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Tovar hit sacrifice fly to left, Doyle scored.1–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Verdugo singled to center, Refsnyder scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 58%
- Fair odds
- BOS -118
- COL +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 5.1 – 5.4 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +11 | COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BOS: Garrett Whitlock: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +59 Elo | BOS 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 24th of 3013–21 | Road vs home | 17–1821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 2–0 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.