Colorado Rockies at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Jurickson ProfarBatting3-5
- Connor SeaboldPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Red Sox- Christian ArroyoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- James PaxtonPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 10Refsnyder grounded into fielder's choice to third, Wong scored, Yoshida out at second.4–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 10McMahon scored, Jones safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Casas, Grichuk to second, Díaz to third.4–2
- 10McMahon scored, Jones safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Casas, Grichuk to second, Díaz to third.4–2
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–2
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 33–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball 13–2
- 10Grichuk walked, Moustakas scored, Díaz to second, McMahon to third.3–2
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball 43–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 32–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 8Díaz singled to center, Profar scored, McMahon to third.2–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 21–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 7Arroyo homered to left center (376 feet).1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Turner doubled to center, Verdugo scored.1–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 4McMahon scored, Grichuk safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Hernández.1–0
- 4McMahon scored on error, Grichuk safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Hernández.1–0
- 4McMahon scored on error, Grichuk safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Hernández.1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 57%
- Fair odds
- BOS -119
- COL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.9 – 5.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −5 | COL: Connor Seabold: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · BOS: James Paxton: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +50 Elo | BOS 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 28th of 3011–21 | Road vs home | 17–1618th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.