Colorado Rockies at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Elias DiazBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Chase AndersonPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Kutter CrawfordPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Devers homered to right (410 feet), Turner scored.7–6
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–6
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball 27–4
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 17–4
- 10Profar hit sacrifice fly to center, Grichuk scored.7–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 16–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 10Grichuk doubled to left, Jones scored and Montes scored.6–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 6Arroyo hit sacrifice fly to center, Duvall scored.4–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Turner singled to center, Reyes scored, Yoshida to second, Verdugo thrown out at home.4–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 4Devers homered to right (311 feet), Turner scored.4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 4Doyle doubled to left, Grichuk scored, Castro to third.4–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 3Díaz doubled to center, McMahon scored, Profar scored and Tovar scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 56%
- Fair odds
- BOS -118
- COL +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.9 – 5.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +5 | COL: Chase Anderson: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +41 Elo | BOS 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 25th of 3012–21 | Road vs home | 17–1719th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 1–0 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.