New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Josh DonaldsonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Domingo GermanPitching2.0 IP, 7 ER, 1 K
Red Sox- Justin TurnerBatting3-5, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Casas doubled to left, Duran scored.5–15
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–15
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–15
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–15
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–15
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–15
- 8Donaldson homered to left center (413 feet).5–14
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–14
- 6Casas reached on infield single to second, Yoshida scored on throwing error by second baseman Torres.4–14
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–14
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 34–13
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–13
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–13
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–13
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–13
- 6McKinney singled to right, Rizzo scored.4–13
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–13
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–13
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–13
- 6Rizzo doubled to center, Stanton scored and Torres scored.3–13
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–13
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–13
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–13
- 4Reyes singled to left, Wong scored.1–13
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–13
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–12
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–12
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–12
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–12
- 4Wong singled to right, Arroyo scored on error and Casas scored on error, Wong safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Bauers.1–12
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–12
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–10
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–10
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–10
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–10
- 3Turner homered to center (429 feet), Wong scored, Reyes scored and Verdugo scored.1–10
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–10
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 3Reyes reached on infield single to third, Arroyo scored, Wong to second.1–6
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 48%
- Fair odds
- BOS -104
- NYY +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.9 – 5.0 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −5 | NYY: Domingo German: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +16 Elo | NYY 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.6 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 5th of 3018–13 | Road vs home | 18–1820th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 1–2 BOS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.