Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Jonah HeimBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
White Sox- Andrew VaughnBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael KopechPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Zavala hit sacrifice fly to center, Frazier scored.6–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul6–3
- 6Vaughn homered to left center (375 feet).6–2
- 6Pitch 9 : Ball In Play6–2
- 6Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 36–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 26–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 16–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–2
- 5Heim homered to right (393 feet), Lowe scored and García scored.6–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 26–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 16–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 4Duran homered to center (398 feet), Heim scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 3Lowe doubled to left, Semien scored, Seager to third.1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 1Jiménez doubled to right, Robert Jr. scored, Jiménez to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 55%
- Fair odds
- TEX -103
- CHW +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.7 – 4.6 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +8 | TEX: Martin Perez: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHW: Michael Kopech: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +34 Elo | TEX 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.1 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.1 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 5th of 3021–15 | Road vs home | 18–1822nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 1–1 CHW in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.