Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Zach RemillardBatting3-3, 2 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 11Remillard singled to center, Andrus scored, Benintendi to third.4–3
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 9Remillard singled to left, Andrus scored, Benintendi to second.3–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 5Hernández singled to left, Rodríguez scored.2–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 5Robert Jr. singled to right, Benintendi scored, Remillard to third.2–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 2Jiménez homered to center (418 feet).1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1France scored, Hernández to second on passed ball by Zavala.0–2
- 1France scored, Hernández to second on passed ball by Zavala.0–2
- 1Crawford homered to right (383 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 56%
- Fair odds
- SEA -117
- CHW +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.0 – 4.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +8 | CHW: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +44 Elo | SEA 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 27th of 3013–24 | Road vs home | 20–1613th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 0–1 SEA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.