Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Gavin SheetsBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael KopechPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Mariners- Teoscar HernandezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 7Hernández homered to center (432 feet).2–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 6France singled to left, Crawford scored, France out stretching at second.2–2
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 6Benintendi homered to right center (394 feet).2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 5Hernández doubled to left, Rodríguez scored.1–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 5Sheets homered to center (397 feet).1–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 51%
- Fair odds
- SEA -113
- CHW +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.1 – 4.4 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −28 | CHW: Michael Kopech: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 1.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +5 Elo | SEA 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 26th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 27th of 3013–23 | Road vs home | 19–1615th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.