Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 16 K
Mariners- Jarred KelenicBatting1-4, 3 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Kelenic tripled to center, Crawford scored, France scored and Hernández scored.1–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 6Benintendi singled to right, Andrus scored.1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Rodríguez doubled to right, Crawford scored and Raleigh scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 57%
- Fair odds
- SEA -117
- CHW +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.0 – 4.4 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | −10 | CHW: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.95 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +47 Elo | SEA 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.39th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 27th of 3014–24 | Road vs home | 20–1714th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 1–1 SEA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.