Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting3-4, 5 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Elvis AndrusBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Remillard singled to left, Andrus scored, Remillard to second.6–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–7
- 8Andrus singled to right, Robert Jr. scored and Rodriguez scored, Andrus to second.6–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 26–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–6
- 8Seager doubled to center, Taveras scored and Jankowski scored.6–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 26–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 7Seager singled to right, Jankowski scored and Taveras scored, Semien to second.4–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Vaughn grounded out to third, Remillard scored, Benintendi to second.2–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 5Andrus homered to left center (407 feet).2–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 32–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 5Seager doubled to center, Jankowski scored, Semien to third.2–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4García homered to left (395 feet).1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 1Jiménez homered to right center (400 feet), Vaughn scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 58%
- Fair odds
- TEX -106
- CHW +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.6 – 4.5 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +6 | TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHW: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +56 Elo | TEX 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.1 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.1 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 5th of 3021–14 | Road vs home | 17–1823rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 1–0 CHW in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.