Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Josh JungBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
White Sox- Andrew VaughnBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner BanksPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Heim singled to right, García scored and Semien scored, Lowe to second.5–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 6Robert Jr. homered to center (433 feet).3–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 6Vaughn homered to left (409 feet).3–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 4Garver singled to left, Lowe scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Jung homered to left (387 feet).2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1García doubled to left, Jung scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 56%
- Fair odds
- TEX -104
- CHW +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.7 – 4.6 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −3 | TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHW: Tanner Banks (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +41 Elo | TEX 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.1 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.1 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 5th of 3020–14 | Road vs home | 17–1721st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.