Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Dylan MooreBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Yankees- Jake BauersBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jhony BritoPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kelenic hit sacrifice fly to center, Rodríguez scored.2–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 8Moore homered to left (387 feet).1–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 7Volpe homered to left center (403 feet).0–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4McKinney homered to right (414 feet).0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Bauers homered to right center (392 feet), Volpe scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 53%
- Fair odds
- NYY -114
- SEA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.0 – 4.3 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +4 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYY: Jhony Brito: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +21 Elo | NYY 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 24th of 3014–19 | Road vs home | 22–1710th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 1–3 NYY in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.