Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Jarred KelenicBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- George KirbyPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Billy McKinneyBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching7.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 6Kelenic doubled to center, France scored.1–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 2McKinney homered to right center (432 feet), Bader scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Rizzo doubled to right, Torres scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 54%
- Fair odds
- NYY -114
- SEA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.1 – 4.4 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +5 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +27 Elo | NYY 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 3014–18 | Road vs home | 21–1711th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 1–2 NYY in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.