Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Teoscar HernandezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Yankees- Isiah Kiner-FalefaBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Domingo GermanPitching3.1 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kiner-Falefa homered to left (376 feet), Rizzo scored.10–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–2
- 4Raleigh homered to right (349 feet).10–0
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play10–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 29–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul9–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul9–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging9–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 19–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–0
- 4Hernández homered to center (437 feet).9–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 28–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 18–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–0
- 3Caballero hit sacrifice fly to center, Ford scored.8–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 37–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging7–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 27–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 3Ford grounded into fielder's choice to third, Suárez scored on error by pitcher Germán, Ford third.7–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–0
- 2France homered to center (430 feet).6–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 2Wong homered to right center (384 feet).5–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 1Ford hit sacrifice fly to right, Raleigh scored.4–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 1Suárez doubled to left, France scored and Hernández scored, Raleigh to third.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 56%
- Fair odds
- NYY -117
- SEA +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.9 – 4.2 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | −9 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.85 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · NYY: Domingo German: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +40 Elo | NYY 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 24th of 3014–20 | Road vs home | 23–179th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 1–4 NYY in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.