Texas Rangers at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dane DunningPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Yankees- Anthony RizzoBatting2-3
- Clarke SchmidtPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10García homered to left (374 feet), Lowe scored.4–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Higashioka hit sacrifice fly to center, Kiner-Falefa scored, McKinney to second.2–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 8Garver singled to left, Jung scored.2–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 4Taveras singled to center, Duran scored on fielding error by center fielder Kiner-Falefa, Taveras to second.1–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2McKinney grounded out to third, Rizzo scored, LeMahieu to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 49%
- Fair odds
- NYY -104
- TEX +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.4 – 4.5 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | 0 | TEX: Dane Dunning: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +8 Elo | TEX 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.1 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.1 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 5th of 3022–15 | Road vs home | 23–189th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 3–1 NYY in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.