New York Yankees at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Josh DonaldsonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jhony BritoPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Athletics- Seth BrownBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Paul BlackburnPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Donaldson homered to left (423 feet).1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 4Brown homered to right center (378 feet).0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Ruiz singled to left, Wade scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 59%
- Fair odds
- NYY -113
- OAK +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.2 – 4.0 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1427 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +10 | NYY: Jhony Brito: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · OAK: Paul Blackburn: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +66 Elo | NYY 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.530th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 6.330th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −2.830th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 9th of 3018–16 | Road vs home | 9–2930th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 3–0 OAK in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.