New York Yankees at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Domingo GermanPitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Athletics- Tony KempBatting0-3
- JP SearsPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kiner-Falefa grounded out to shortstop, Bader scored, Donaldson to third.11–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play11–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 110–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging10–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–0
- 9Donaldson doubled to left, Cabrera scored, Bader to third.10–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play10–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 19–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul9–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–0
- 9Bader grounded into fielder's choice to third, Rizzo scored on throwing error by third baseman Bride, Cabrera to second.9–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 28–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 18–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–0
- 7Donaldson hit sacrifice fly to center, Cabrera scored.8–0
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging7–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 27–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 5Kiner-Falefa singled to right, Rizzo scored, Stanton to second.7–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–0
- 5Stanton singled to left, LeMahieu scored and Torres scored, Rizzo to second.6–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 5LeMahieu singled to left, Volpe scored.4–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 5Volpe reached on bunt single to pitcher, Higashioka scored on throwing error by pitcher Sears, Volpe to second.3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Higashioka doubled to left, Kiner-Falefa scored.2–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 56%
- Fair odds
- NYY -110
- OAK +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.3 – 4.0 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1429 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | +6 | NYY: Domingo German: team allows 0.86 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +43 Elo | NYY 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.530th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 6.230th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −2.830th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 10th of 3018–17 | Road vs home | 10–2929th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 3–1 OAK in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.