Houston Astros at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Alex BregmanBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- J.P. FrancePitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Brendan DonovanBatting1-4
- Steven MatzPitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bregman homered to left (396 feet), Peña scored, McCormick scored and Dubón scored.14–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play14–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul14–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 214–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 114–0
- 8Julks singled to right, Meyers scored, Kessinger to third.10–0
- 8Pitch 9 : Ball In Play10–0
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball 39–0
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul10–0
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 29–0
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul9–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul9–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging9–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking9–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 19–0
- 6Tucker homered to center (447 feet), Altuve scored and Bregman scored.9–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 26–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 2Diaz doubled to center, J. Abreu scored.6–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–0
- 2J. Abreu doubled to left, Bregman scored and Tucker scored.5–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 33–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Tucker singled to center, Altuve scored and Peña scored, Bregman to third.3–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Altuve singled to right, Julks scored, Peña to second.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 47%
- Fair odds
- STL -101
- HOU +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.8 – 4.9 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −16 | HOU: J.P. France: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · STL: Adam Wainwright: team allows 0.78 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +21 Elo | HOU 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.221st of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 10th of 3021–18 | Road vs home | 14–2227th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 1–1 STL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.